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LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC. (LAUR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue increased 9% year over year to $400.2M, with Adjusted EBITDA up 4% to $94.8M; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.23 and Adjusted EPS was $0.25 .
  • Full-year 2025 guidance raised: revenue to $1.681–$1.686B and Adjusted EBITDA to $508–$512M; total enrollment ~494K. The Board also increased the buyback authorization by $150M, leaving ~$177M capacity .
  • Q4 2025 outlook guides revenue to $521–$526M and Adjusted EBITDA to $194–$198M, reflecting academic calendar catch-up and favorable FX .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus, Q3 revenue and EBITDA beat while EPS missed: revenue $400.2M vs $384.1M*, EBITDA $91.1M vs $86.9M*, EPS $0.25 vs $0.28* (primary EPS). Strength came from Peru’s online programs and FX tailwinds; headwinds included non-cash FX on intercompany loans and a tougher prior-year tax compare . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Peru’s secondary intake delivered double-digit new enrollment growth and continued scaling of fully online working-adult programs, aided by macro improvement and favorable FX .
    • Mexico delivered revenue growth and margin optimization; Adjusted EBITDA rose 25% YoY in Q3, supported by productivity gains and pricing in line with inflation .
    • Management raised full-year guidance at midpoints by $61M revenue and $17M Adjusted EBITDA and upsized the buyback by $150M, signaling confidence and capital return commitment .
    • Quote: “Third quarter revenue was $400 million and adjusted EBITDA was $95 million. Both metrics were ahead of the guidance we provided in July… we are announcing an increase to our full year 2025 outlook” — Eilif Serck‑Hanssen, CEO .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Net income declined to $34.4M from $85.3M YoY, primarily due to adverse FX on intercompany balances and a discrete $37.9M tax benefit in Q3 2024, compressing the year-over-year compare .
    • Peru’s Adjusted EBITDA fell 2% YoY (9% reported) in Q3 due to expense timing; management expects normalization in Q4 .
    • Academic calendar shifts reduced Q3 revenue by ~$7M and Adjusted EBITDA by ~$5M intra-year, deferring recognition to Q4 .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance (Q1–Q3 2025)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$236.2 $524.2 $400.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.13) $0.65 $0.23
Adjusted EPS ($)$(0.11) $0.79 $0.25
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$5.4 $214.5 $94.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)2.3% 40.9%23.7%
Income from Continuing Ops Margin (%)(8.4%) 18.6%8.6%

Q3 2025 vs prior year (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$368.6 $400.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.56 $0.23
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.22 $0.25
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$91.4 $94.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)24.8%23.7%
Income from Continuing Ops Margin (%)23.1%8.6%

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$384.1*$400.2
Primary EPS ($)$0.280*$0.25
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$86.9*$91.1

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Actual EBITDA shown is EBITDA before adjustments (Q3 EBITDA $91.1M) .

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

SegmentRevenue Q3 2024 ($M)Revenue Q3 2025 ($M)Adjusted EBITDA Q3 2024 ($M)Adjusted EBITDA Q3 2025 ($M)
Mexico$182.5 $194.8 $20.0 $25.7
Peru$186.1 $205.3 $79.8 $78.1

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIValue
New Enrollments YTD (Mexico/Peru/Total)158,000 / 100,800 / 258,800
Total Enrollments as of 9/30/25 (Mexico/Peru/Total)277,000 / 234,400 / 511,400
Net Cash ($USD Millions)$138.6
YTD Share Repurchases ($USD Millions)$71

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Enrollment (students)FY 2025491K–495K ~494K Maintained (narrowed to midpoint)
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$1,615–$1,630 $1,681–$1,686 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$489–$496 $508–$512 Raised
Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2025—$521–$526 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q4 2025—$194–$198 New
Share Repurchase Authorization ($USD Millions)Ongoing$100 total with $27 remaining +$150 to $250 total authorization; ~$177 remaining capacity Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Academic calendar timingQ1 revenue/EBITDA headwind ($26M/$23M) expected to offset in 2H Q2 tailwind ($8M revenue, $7M EBITDA) with continued intra-year shifts Q3 headwind ($7M revenue, $5M EBITDA) with catch-up guided for Q4 Normalizing in Q4
Peru online programsTiming-adjusted new enrollment +6%; early scaling Strong primary intake, online expansion; revenue +7% YTD org/cc (timing-adjusted) Secondary intake +21% new enrollments; continued scaling and favorable FX Accelerating
Mexico macro/pricingSecondary intake +8%; pricing aligned with inflation Q2 Mexico revenue +13% org/cc; margin up; inflation-aligned pricing Primary intake +4% ex-closures; margin improvement; inflation-aligned pricing Resilient despite macro
Capital allocation$42M buybacks in Q1; strong cash accretive model $71M buybacks YTD; $27M remaining +$150M buyback increase; ~$177M capacity; net cash $138.6M More constructive
FX impactsAnticipated MXN/PEN headwinds at Q1; guidance framed at spot Strengthening MXN/PEN improved outlook; beats aided by FX Weaker USD favorable; FX gains vs prior expectations, but non-cash FX hit income Tailwind for ops; accounting noise

Management Commentary

  • “Favorable results for the quarter were driven by improved foreign currency rates and double-digit growth in Peru’s secondary intake, led by fully online working adult programs… we are announcing an increase to our full year 2025 outlook.” — Eilif Serck‑Hanssen, CEO .
  • “Revenue for the seasonally low third quarter was up 6% year over year and adjusted EBITDA increased by 3% [on an organic constant currency, timing-adjusted basis].” — Rick Buskirk, CFO .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 150 basis points [for FY 2025], primarily driven by Mexico's continued margin optimization and operating leverage.” — Rick Buskirk, CFO .
  • “The Board has authorized a $150 million increase in our stock buyback authorization… our strong balance sheet and high free cash flow generation continue to allow us to deliver on our commitment to return excess capital to shareholders.” — Eilif Serck‑Hanssen, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Peru performance: Management cited post-recession demand catch-up, strong consumer sentiment, and rapid growth in fully online programs; face-to-face pricing is aligned with inflation, with slight headline price reductions for online to optimize revenue .
  • Mexico intake dynamics: Q3 primary intake was driven mainly by traditional 18–24-year-old undergrads; working-adult cycles are earlier in the year .
  • New campus contribution: Mexico new enrollment growth was +4% excluding campus closures, with ~1 ppt contribution from new campuses; ~3 ppts same-store .
  • Mix impact on ARPU (Peru): CFO indicated a potential ~2% mix impact as online programs grow faster, with inflation at ~2% guiding pricing alignment .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue beat (Actual $400.2M vs $384.1M*), EBITDA beat (Actual $91.1M vs $86.9M*), EPS miss (Adjusted/Primary EPS Actual $0.25 vs $0.28*). Expect models to adjust for stronger revenue/EBITDA trajectory and FX tailwinds, offset by non-cash FX in GAAP EPS and calendar timing effects . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Q4 2025: Company guides revenue $521–$526M and Adjusted EBITDA $194–$198, broadly in line with consensus revenue $523.7M* and EBITDA ~$196.8M*, suggesting limited surprise risk if FX and calendar catch-up track . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance raise and $150M buyback upsizing are constructive near-term catalysts; ~$177M repurchase capacity remains .
  • Structural enrollment growth continues: YTD new enrollments +7%, total enrollments +6%; Peru online scaling and Mexico resilience underpin revenue .
  • Expect Q4 catch-up from academic calendar shifts to lift reported revenue/EBITDA (Q3 timing headwinds: ~$7M revenue, ~$5M EBITDA) .
  • Mexico margin optimization is durable; Q3 Adjusted EBITDA +25% YoY; management targets ~150 bps FY margin accretion .
  • GAAP net income volatility reflects non-cash FX on intercompany loans and tough tax compares; adjusted metrics better reflect core ops .
  • Balance sheet strength (net cash $138.6M) and free cash flow conversion (~50% target for FY) support ongoing capital returns and growth investments .
  • Monitor mix-driven ARPU pressure as online grows in Peru; management targets inflation-aligned pricing with modest mix impact (~2%) .